{"id":149885,"date":"2023-07-31T08:00:14","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T08:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/2023\/07\/31\/251013\/"},"modified":"2024-12-15T13:51:55","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T13:51:55","slug":"fitch-expects-armenias-government-debt-to-stabilize-at-around-44-6-in-2023-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/2023\/07\/31\/149885\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch expects Armenia\u2019s government debt to stabilize at around 44.6% in 2023-25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>YEREVAN, July 31. \/ARKA\/. <\/strong>Fitch ratings said in a report that Armenia\u2019s government debt\/GDP fell sharply to 46.7% in 2022 from 60.2% in 2021 due mainly to currency appreciation, but also\u00a0due to the\u00a0\u00a0strong nominal GDP rebound and fiscal consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On July 28 Fitch&nbsp;Ratings upgraded Armenia&#8217;s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to &#8216;BB-&#8216; from &#8216;B+&#8217;. The Outlook is Stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fitch expects stabilization at around 44.6% in 2023-25, below its pre-pandemic 2019 level of 53.7% and the current &#8216;BB&#8217; median of 54.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The share of FX-denominated debt of 60.5% as of 1Q23 is above the &#8216;BB&#8217; median of 55%, although this has declined from 71.2% at end-2021 due to sharp dram appreciation as well a shift to greater local borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Risks to debt dynamics are mitigated by the relatively large share of concessional debt, and the high proportion of fixed rate debt (84.1% as of May).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fitch expects that robust nominal economic growth and higher spending will result in a moderate increase in the general government deficit (cash basis) to 2.5% of GDP, from 2.2% in 2022. Fitch&#8217;s forecast is more optimistic than the government&#8217;s expectation of a deficit of 2.9%, given the agency&#8217;s higher growth projection, and slightly more conservative view of capex execution. Fitch expects the deficit to widen to an average of 3% of GDP in 2024-25. -0-<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fitch ratings said in a report that Armenia\u2019s government debt\/GDP fell sharply to 46.7% in 2022 from 60.2% in 2021 due mainly to currency appreciation, but also\u00a0due to the\u00a0\u00a0strong nominal GDP rebound and fiscal consolidation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":173358,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","tstyn_error":""},"categories":[12139,9216],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-149885","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy-en","8":"category-news"},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=149885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149885\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=149885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=149885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/armbanks.am\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=149885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}