YEREVAN, January 20. \/ARKA\/. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts a further acceleration in price growth in the coming months, with inflation expected to align closely with the target of the Central Bank of Armenia (3% \u00b11%). This is stated in the EDB\u2019s weekly macroeconomic review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Under these conditions, the likelihood of completing the current cycle of refinancing rate reductions in the first quarter of 2025 is increasing,” the report notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
EDB analysts point out that inflation in Armenia reached 1.5% year-on-year in December, up from 1.4% year-on-year the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Food prices continued to rise: 2.0% year-on-year in December, up from 1.7% year-on-year the previous month. In December, the growth in service prices remained at 2.5% year-on-year (down from 3% year-on-year the previous month). Disinflation in the non-food segment slowed, registering 1.8% year-on-year, compared to 2.1% year-on-year a month earlier,” the macro review states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The cycle of reducing the refinancing rate in Armenia has been ongoing since June 2023, with the Central Bank lowering this rate 13 times in a row, from 10.5% to the current 7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Inflation Figures and Forecasts<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 2025 state budget of Armenia projects inflation at 3% (\u00b11%). In November, the 12-month inflation rate stood at 1.4%. According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of last year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range from 3.9% to 3.2% by the end of 2025. The forecast for 2026 is 4.2%-3.8%, while for 2027, it is 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The World Bank expects inflation in Armenia to be 3.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. The IMF forecasts a 3.7% increase in prices in 2025. The ADB expects inflation to rise to 2.5% in 2025. The EDB anticipates inflation in Armenia to reach 3.1% by the end of 2025.-0-<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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