YEREVAN, January 23. /ARKA/. The U.S. dollar shed 0.41% at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange last week and traded at 387.50 drams, on average.
Transactions effected over the week totalled AMD 13.30 million – 28.49% less than a week earlier.
Average exchange rate was 389.40 drams per one dollar on Saturday – 0.37% devaluation of the dollar.
In the beginning of the last week, demand for foreign currencies remained high as the dollar continued its upward motion, reaching its record high since June 2010 – 389.82 drams.
However, the dollar rolled down later as a result of the central bank’s intervention aimed at deterring the Armenian national currency from a deep plunge.
The dollar is believed to continue shedding this week in Armenia along with short-term devaluation at FOREX world market prompted by good macroeconomic metrics.
The most likely exchange rate at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange this week will be 385.0 drams per one dollar. The decline in the population and businesses’ demand for the dollar will make this exchange rate very probable.
Indeed, according to Armenian central bank’s review, commercial banks sold $17.343 million at intra-banking forex market last week. This amount is 38.62% less than the previous week’s result.
Nevertheless, forex market players still keep their eyes on the dollar, taking into account its stable positions at the world FOREX market and viewing it as a harbor currency amid the ongoing uncertainty in the euro zone and its impact on Armenia’s economy.
The dollar is thought to be traded at 387 to 390 drams in Armenia throughout the next week.
The value of the euro in Armenia last week was determined by developments at the world FOREX, where EUR/USD rose 1.98% to 1.2932.
The European currency was regaining momentum until January 19 as macroeconomic indicators from China and the euro zone were positive – China’s fourth quarter GDP indicators released on January 17 have shown 8.9% year-on-year growth instead of the projected 8.6%, and its industrial growth speeded up from 12.4% to 12.8%.
The higher-than-expected economic optimism index in Germany fueled the European currency’s rally as well.
On Jan 20, however, the euro wilted again because of the continuing ineffective negotiations of Greek government with private creditors over its debt restructuring.
In Armenia, the euro went 0.7% up against the national currency over the last week to 506.24 drams.
Market players will keep their eyes on developments connected with Europe’s sovereign debt problem also the next week.
Athens’ unsuccessful negotiations with private creditors on January 21 may escalate tension on financial markets, affecting the euro.
It was reported on Friday that the sides had reached some progress and came close to signing an agreement to write off 50% of the debt. Deadline was reportedly set on Saturday.
This week’s macroeconomic indicators will impact the euro as well.
Market participants will also keep a close watch on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s session, where the benchmark refinancing rate will be set, the release of preliminary GDP data for the 4th Q, housing sector’s figures for December and Michigan University’s final confidence index for January.
If favorable statistical reports are released in the United States and the euro area, the European currency will keep strengthening.
However, the Federal Reserve’s session, at which the U.S. regulator’s unwillingness to launch the third full-scale financial stimulus program is believed to be confirmed, may hobble revaluation of the euro this week.
The European currency is expected to fluctuate between 1.2730 and 1.3100 the next week.
In this case, the euro will trade at 499 to 517 drams in Armenia.
The Russian ruble rose 0.6% in Armenia over the last week to 12.60 drams. This was caused by the ruble’s increase against the U.S. dollar along with the improved outlooks in financial markets and stably high oil prices.
We think the ruble’s value may be affected by Greece’s recent failure to reach an accord with private creditors.
Instead, it may be supported by oil prices, which remain high amid Iranian imbroglio, and by the expected release of positive macroeconomic data in the United States and the euro area.
The ruble is thought to be traded at 12.45 to 12.75 drams in Armenia in the coming five days.
Mikael Verdyan, FOREX CLUB analyst, specially for ARKA News Agency
The author’s opinion does not necessarily coincide with that of the news agency’s editorial board
