YEREVAN, March 11. / ARKA /. Last week, the average weighted exchange rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange grew by 0.01% to 410.74 drams with weekly trading rising to $25.42 million, two times more than in the previous week. The rapid growth in trading volume was due to a large number of transactions made in the first day of the trading week.
The average selling rate of cash dollar fell by 0.05% on March 9 to 12.05 drams. The situation in Armenia’s forex market is still conditioned by moderate devaluation sentiments and the growth of U.S. dollar’s value at international currency markets.
This week the U.S. dollar has every reason to continue the rise amid persistent demand of importers and individuals for foreign currency. Considering a possible intervention of the regulator in the market to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, the average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week will be between 410.0 – 415.0 drams.
Another factor pushing the cost of USD up will be the higher amount of purchases of the U.S. currency by population and businesses. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, local banks sold last week $18.173 million, which was three and a half times more than the previous week. Earlier last week the single European currency enjoyed moderate demand after the European regulator did not lower its key refinancing rate, and also left unchanged its inflation forecast.
However, encouraging news from the US labor market, published at the end of the week, quickly leveled the prevailing optimism, putting pressure on the euro quotes. Indeed, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the U.S. in February rose by 236 thousand against forecasted 165 thousand and the unemployment rate fell to .7% versus 7.9% in the previous month. As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia last week was down by 0.10% to 538.41 drams.
This week the euro dynamics in the world and, consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. Of US statistics we would like to single out data on retail trade, consumer prices index and industrial production for February. Of European news – data on consumer inflation for February, and the publication of the ECB monthly report. This all in view, we expect the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week to be between 530 – 545 drams.
The average selling rate of Russian ruble in Armenia last week declined by 0.15% to 13.51 drams, due to a decrease in the value of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar at the end of the week on positive macro data from the US employment market.
The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, therefore, the dram this week will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S., as well as the dynamics of oil prices.. However, if the economic data from the US is very upbeat, the ruble may drop. This in mind we expect its average selling rate this week to be 13.45 – 13.58 drams.
Mikael Verdyan, GC FOREX CLUB analyst, especially for ARKA
Views of the author do not necessarily represent those of the agency
