YEREVAN, March 15. /ARKA/. An average exchange rate of the Armenian dram will vary within 410-415 drams up to the end of March, Mikael Verdyan, GC FOREX CLUB analyst, commented to ARKA on forex market situation in the country.
As of March 14 the average weighted exchange rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange inched up by 3.55 points to 414.72 drams per $1 from March 11. On March 13 it recorded new high of 415.00 drams.
At the same time as of March 14 USD rose against AMD by 3.57 points to 414.28 drams per $1 from March 11.
“We suppose that the upper line has already been determined—415 drams. Possibly, for two weeks the markets can consolidate and drop even more, even though the lower line will confirm 410 drams,” Verdyan said.
According to him, in their “Armenia: Forex market review for March 4-7” (http://www.armbanks.am/en/2013/03/11/49587/ )GC FOREX CLUB analysts said the rates not only hit 410 drams per $1 but will also continue rising.
Verdyan also noted such suggestion is just supported by the demand of Armenian business for foreign currency and the public’s ongoing devaluation sentiments.
“USD has been strengthening against its competitors over the recent months. Moreover, some of our dealers see the USD as a “heaven asset,” he said.
Verdyan doesn’t forecast sharp AMD tumble against USD implying USD upturn will be gradual due to measures of the regulator to do away with some sharp fluctuations.
As to whether the Central Bank of Armenia can conduct intervention on the forex market, the analyst said that the CB has already intervened as the rate continued upping after recording high of 415 drams per $1 the day before.
“This intervention scared the market dealers,” he clarified.
Verdyan noted such fluctuations on the forex market of Armenia are somehow connected with the global tendencies.
“Nowadays, market dealers prefer USD. USD/EUR pair has gained a serious support and the dealers are likely to start the fixation of the pair’s short position,” he clarified.
As to the possible long-term perspectives, Verdyan said USD growth dynamics will depend on Federal Reserve’s currency policy, and in this case AMD will record high of 415 drams rushing to new high of 420 drams per $1.
He added the analysts don’t see any further factors for higher USD upturn against AMD. ($1 – 414.28 drams).—0-
