YEREVAN, July 18. / ARKA /. GDP growth in former Soviet republics which make the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in 2011 may reach 4.5% and 4.53% in 2012, the Kazakhstan-based Eurasian Development Bank EDB, said in a report on macroeconomic forecasts, posted on its official website Monday.
The report says Central Asian nations are expected to lead the growth. Thus, Turkmenistan is expected to see a 9.3% GDP growth, Uzbekistan a 7.8% growth and Tajikistan a 6.1%. Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 5.9% and that of Kyrgyzstan by 5.7%.According to the forecast, the economies of Russia and Ukraine will grow by 4.5%, RIA Novosti reported. The lowest growth is expected in Azerbaijan (3.9%), Moldova (4.1%) and Armenia (4.3%). The report says also because of the crisis in Belarus its economic expansion prospects are uncertain.
The report says there still remain some significant risks to sustained economic development in these countries. The first risk is the slowing global economy, especially China’s which means lower demand for raw materials, the main export item of many CIS countries and subsequent deterioration of their current accounts. The second risk is that the restoration of the region’s economies has not yet led to the disappearance of budget deficit and debt accumulation continues. Third, the growth in world food prices and the continuing excessive monetary liquidity make inflation a major problem in the region.
According to the CIS Statistical Committee, in 2010 the average GDP growth in CIS was 4.5%. -0-
