YEREVAN, August 4. /ARKA/. According to the forecasts of CBA, inflation by the end of 2011 will possibly be 74.2% making 3-5.5% in Armenia by the targeted indicator of inflation on the level of 4% (±1.5%), the program of monetary-credit policy of CBA for the Q3 of 2011 states.
Starting from the third quarter of 2011, inflation rates will reduce and by the end of the year the expected indicator will reach to minimum point of target corridor which is explained by the tendency of reduction of world prices for the main food products and raw material.
“Though the inflation rates are expected to reduce, there are still risks related to the deviation of inflation increase. 12-month inflation for the end of the year with possibility of 74.2% will be 3-5.5%, including the possibility of 20.4% which will be around 4-5.5%”, CBA program states.
CBA considers that inflation will be 3.2% by the end of the year. –0–
| Inflation interval | Possibility of inflation in the interval | |
| Q IV, 2011 | Q II, 2012 | |
| < 1.0% | 0.03% | 3.3% |
| 1.0 – 3.0% | 25.4% | 43.8% |
| 3.0 – 4.0% | 53.8% | 26.7% |
| 4.0 – 5.5% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| 5.5 – 7.5% | 0.3% | 5.04% |
| 7.5%< | 0.06% | 0.15% |
