YEREVAN, July 29. /ARKA/. Inflation in Armenia is projected at 1.5% year-on-year by the end of 2024, a macroeconomic forecast by the Eurasian Development Bank revealed on Monday.
The report highlighted that the disinflationary impact of global commodity and raw material prices, decreasing inflation expectations, and the strengthening of the dram will limit price growth. However, factors such as the easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Armenia, a stimulative fiscal policy, and the strengthening of domestic demand will contribute to inflationary pressures in 2024. For 2025-2026, inflation is expected to form near the lower bound of the Central Bank of Armenia’s target range (4±1.5%).
The state budget for 2024 includes an inflation target of 4% (±1.5%). According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the second quarter of the current year, inflation in Armenia is expected to be within 0.9-1.3% by the end of 2024, with forecasts of 3.8-3.2% for 2025 and 3.7-4% for 2026.
The World Bank expects inflation in Armenia to be 3% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 4% in 2026. The IMF forecasts price increases of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. The ADB projects inflation in Armenia at 3% in 2024, accelerating to 3.5% in 2025 due to the easing of monetary policy.
