YEREVAN, October 13. /ARKA/. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Armenia for 2026 to 5.8%, up from the previously expected 5.5%. This is stated in the fund’s autumn edition of the “Regional Economic Outlook – 2026.”
According to updated estimates, Armenia’s economy will grow by 5.1% in 2027, with growth rates of 5% annually in 2028–2029.
The EFSD notes that after several years of high growth rates, Armenia’s economy is gradually returning to a more balanced trajectory. High domestic demand remains a key factor supporting economic activity.
Inflation Forecast
The EFSD has also revised its inflation forecast for Armenia for 2026 upwards—from 3.9% to 4.1%.
For 2027–2028, the fund expects inflation to slow to 3.1%, and to 3% in 2029.
Budget and External Economic Indicators
According to the fund’s estimates, gradual fiscal consolidation will continue in Armenia over the medium term. The state budget deficit is expected to narrow from 3.5% of GDP in 2026 to 2.2% of GDP by 2029. At the same time, strong domestic demand will continue to support imports; consequently, the current account deficit is expected to remain at around 5–6% of GDP in the medium term.
Note: According to the Statistical Committee of Armenia, economic growth in 2025 stood at 7.2%. The 2026 state budget projects GDP growth of 5.4%. The Central Bank of Armenia’s inflation target is 3%, with a permissible deviation of 1 percentage point.
