YEREVAN, October 20. /ARKA/. Should Armenia’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) be suspended, monetary transfers from EAEU member states to Armenia could fall from a projected $3,953.5 million in 2025 to $1,850 million—a decrease of $2,103.5 million.
This is according to a report on the potential consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty with respect to Armenia, prepared by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The authors estimate that the bulk of this decline would involve Russia: the volume of transfers could drop from $3,878.3 million in 2025 to $1,806 million a reduction of $2,072.3 million. Russia has historically accounted for 98.1% of all incoming transfers from EAEU member states.
Inflows from Kazakhstan are projected to fall from $53.6 million to $29.6 million; from Belarus, from $17.1 million to $11.3 million; and from Kyrgyzstan, from $4.5 million to $3 million.
Conditions for employment
According to data from the Eurasian Economic Commission cited in the report, 126,900 Armenian citizens were employed in other EAEU member states in 2025. Of these, 124,600 people or 98.2% are in Russia, 2,100 are in Kazakhstan, 222 are in Belarus, and 22 are in Kyrgyzstan.
According to the document, the suspension of Armenia’s participation in the Union would entail the termination of the labor regime established by the EAEU Treaty.
The report states that if Armenia’s participation in the EAEU were suspended, requirements for obtaining work permits or patents—currently applied to workers from third countries would be reinstated. Furthermore, Armenian workers would become subject to the quota restrictions that EAEU member states impose to regulate their labor markets.
The provisions of the Treaty regarding access to medical care and social security for workers and their family members would also cease to apply. Additionally, the tax regime currently applied to workers from third countries would be reinstated for the earnings of Armenian workers.
The authors attribute the projected decline in remittances to deteriorating working conditions, rising costs (including those for work permits and medical care), and an overall contraction in trade and economic activity.
How the forecast was calculated
The authors calculated the projected level of remittances by assuming that inflows from EAEU member states would return to levels seen before Armenia joined the Union. The baseline used is the average annual volume of remittances from 2010–2014, which stood at $1.25 billion.
The report notes that a direct comparison between this figure and the projected 2025 data would be inaccurate due to changes in prices and nominal income levels. Consequently, the calculation accounts for the cumulative change in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, based on the U.S. Consumer Price Index. The resulting scenario-based figure is $1.85 billion.
The report, published on the Russian government’s website, was prepared in pursuance of a joint statement by the presidents of four countries dated May 29, 2026, for presentation at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
