YEREVAN, November 26. / ARKA /. Last week, the average weighted exchanged rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange decreased by 0.23% to 406.0 drams with weekly trading amounting to $16.65 million, up 10.56% from the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar fell by 0.19% to 407.60 drams on November 24.
At the beginning of this week the U.S. dollar has every reason to continue the drop at NASDAQ OMX Armenia to 405.0 drams. However, in the second half of the week, the U.S. currency is likely to again recover its losses due to the continued stable domestic demand.
The increase in the U.S. dollar value will also be backed by the growing amount of purchases of the U.S. currency by individuals and businesses. Indeed, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, USD trading at intra-exchange market by commercial banks last week reached $7.075 million, which is 33.42% more than in the previous week. This in view we predict the average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week will be within 406.0 – 410.0 drams.
Last week, the single European currency’s value was rising due to renewed hopes that U.S. lawmakers will be able to prevent the looming “budget cliff”, as well as due to positive comments from European officials on the negotiations on the EU budget. More positive than expected data from the German IFO Institute on business environment also added optimism. Last week the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia rose by 1.02% to 527.84 drams.
This week the euro dynamics in the world and, consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. Of American news it is worth paying attention to the publication of the revised U.S. GDP data for the third quarter, as well as the data on the housing sector, orders for durable goods, and business activity figures of Chicago PMI. Of European news we would like to highlight the publication of the final data for the euro-zone consumer confidence for November, as well as figures from the labor market in Germany in November.
If, however, contrary to expectations, the data from the eurozone will be better than expected, and the finance ministers fail to agree on the allocation of the next tranche to Athens, the euro may continue the growth, In this regard, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week will probably be within 523 – 538 drams.
The average selling rate of Russian ruble last week rose by 1.85% to 13.21 drams due to a higher value of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar on hopes for an agreement on Greece. The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, therefore, the drams this week will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and the euro area, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. The average selling rate of cash rubles in Armenia this week is likely to be in the range of 13.10 – 13.30 drams.
Mikael Verdyan, analyst of FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA
Views of the author do not necessarily represent those of the agency
