YEREVAN, January 10. /ARKA/. GDP growth will speed up in Armenia to 6-7%, Eurasian Development Bank projects in its CIS Macromonitoring Dec 2011 Report.
“Our outlooks for the country economy’s long-term prospects are optimistic as a whole,” the Eurasian Development Bank said in its report. “Taking into account the fact that Armenia’s economy shows four-to-five-percent growth amid stagnation in investments, especially in construction, we expect a gradual acceleration in economic growth in Armenia in 2013 to minimum 6 or 7 percent with at least modest growth in these sectors.”
At the same time, experts at the Eurasian Development Bank say that the current slowdown in lending will have an adverse impact on the country’s economic growth.
However, if the global economy doesn’t face as severe economic shocks as in 2008, this impact will be mild.
The Eurasian Development Bank also says that if Armenia’s central bank doesn’t make unexpected mistakes, it will manage to keep the current five-percent annual inflation rate unchanged.
Like many other countries, Armenia now can’t reckon on considerable intensification of inflow of capital or on rapid increase in prices for its exports, and this will help doing it.
“If adverse developments in the world economy don’t undermine Armenian economy’s firmness up to inevitable devaluation of the national currency, it will rather make it easier for the country’s central bank to control inflation,” the report says.
EDB experts say that Armenia’s economy faces some structural problems, such as a steady unemployment, the highest in the region.
As another structural trouble, they pointed out the permanent foreign trade deficit, which poses a threat to Armenia’s economy and can harm it if inflow of capital in the country dwindles precipitously and prices for exported raw materials fall.
The experts recommended Armenia to enhance its competitiveness, lessen monopolization of markets, improve environment for doing business and develop its transport infrastructures to solve both problems.
They think diversification of the country’s exports, which mostly consists of metals and ores (60% of exports), and gradual contraction of the ratio of the foreign debt to GDP would make the economy steadier.
National Statistical Service of Armenia says GDP amounted to AMD 1157.9 billion in the third quarter of 2011 – 6.5% year-on-year growth.-0—
