YEREVAN, May 29. /ARKA/. U.S. dollar will report normal exchange rate in Armenia in June, thinks the Chairman of Financial-Accounting Department of the Faculty of Economics at Yerevan State University Hayk Mnatsakanyan referring to statistical analysis.
The devaluation of Armenian dram is caused by outer and inner factors, and the latter is touched off by the seasonal phenomenon.
“If we make parallels with the last year, we may see that the data released by the Central Bank of Armenia show the analogical change in AMD rates that was prompted by the rise in demand for the foreign currency in the country early in summer,” Mnatsakanyan said adding that this was also incited by the country’s external tourism.
Referring to the statistics, the expert also said that usually USD costs in Armenia higher in May than in June.
Amid the outer factors Mnatsakanyan highlighted tumble in oil prices at global markets.
According to him, constant drop in oil prices within the last four weeks resulted in strong U.S. dollar. The June oil futures increases both at London Stock Exchange and the American stocks, he added.
The expert noted that this fact will soften dollar-dram pair since July.
Answering to how the devaluation of dram will influence the inflation in Armenia, Mnatsakanyan said that the Central Bank of Armenia conducts the policy of price growth containment implying inflation within 4,5% (±1,5%).
“CB fixed this price fluctuation benchmark after conducting a detailed analysis, and believes that it will be kept. I advice ordinary consumers who are not involved into the international trade to give a calm reaction to this phenomenon, as I am sure that they will be able to purchase the foreign currency at cheaper rates already in June,” the expert added.
He clarified that dollar’s exchange rate will not go back to the point from which it started growing in Armenia.
Over the recent two weeks the Armenian national currency has devaluated against the U.S. dollar by 13.27 drams or 3.4% (from 393.41 to 406.68 drams per $1). The maximum high rate of the USD against AMD was recorded on May 25 (406.68 drams per $1).—0–
