YEREVAN, July 28. / ARKA /. Armenia’s economic growth in 2015 may slow down to 0.8%, according to Artak Azizyan, head of a department at the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development, managed by the Eurasian Development Bank.
In an interview with ARKA news agency, he said the positive effect of the recovery of copper production on GDP will weaken in the second half of the year. At the same time against the background of the expanding recession in Russia, limited capacity of fiscal stimulus, domestic demand will not recover, despite the slowdown trend in the drop in remittances in dollar terms and a limited recovery of investment, which is likely due to Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union.
Loss of external price competitiveness, the recession in Russia, a weak recovery in the euro zone and low metal prices will constrain recovery of exports, which according to Azizyan, will collectively slow down the growth to 0.8%.
The growth forecast set out in the government budget for 2015 is 4.1%, while the projected inflation is 4% (± 1,5%).
According to the latest forecasts of the World Bank, economic growth in Armenia in 2015 will fell to 0.8%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects it to stagnate, the Asian Development Bank predicts a 1.6% growth while the IMF expects zero growth.
In a latest assessment of Armenian economy Fitch said national indicators on economic activity suggest Armenia’s economic growth is better than Fitch previously anticipated. As a result, it has have revised upwards its real GDP forecast for 2015 to +1.5% from -0.5%, followed by growth of 2.5% and 2.9% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Growth will be mainly constrained by weak private consumption against a lower trend in net remittance receipts, Fitch said.
According to official data, the first quarter growth was 2.2 percent.-0-
