YEREVAN, October 13, /ARKA/. On October 12, 2021, S&P Global Ratings assigned its ‘B+’ long-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings to Armenia. At the same time, it assigned its ‘B’ short-term foreign- and local currency ratings. The outlook is positive. It also assigned its ‘BB-‘ transfer and convertibility assessment to Armenia.
In an overview the S&P says that the Armenian economy is recovering and that it expects GDP to exceed 2019 levels by next year, and for growth to settle at close to 4% a year over the medium term.
According to S&P, with per capita GDP estimated at around $4,600 this year, absolute levels of income remain modest, while fiscal and external leverage are comparably high.
It says the positive outlook reflects the potential that implementation of the government’s five-year program will generate faster growth, external deleveraging, and further improvements in the country’s monetary policy framework.
Outlook
The positive outlook reflects also Armenia’s prospects for a continued rapid economic expansion over the next two-to-three years. It also reflects the potential for faster-than-anticipated reduction in external leverage as well as stronger fiscal performance, beyond our expectations.
Upside scenario
S&P says it could raise the ratings on Armenia over the next 12 months if it sustained its strong economic performance with no major external headwinds or pandemic-related challenges clouding the medium-term growth prospects alongside sustained structural reform momentum. An upgrade could also follow a larger-than-expected reduction in external debt.
Downside scenario
It could revise the outlook to stable if GDP growth fails to pick up, contrary to our expectations, or if the external deleveraging trend reverses.
S&P says its ratings on Armenia are constrained by evolving institutional settings, low income levels, high external indebtedness, and sizable external financing needs.
‘We also factor in the recent erosion of public finances, albeit with well-contained debt servicing costs. The ratings are supported by Armenia’s positive growth outlook, its fiscal consolidation plans, the availability of external official funding, and a prudent policy framework that has helped preserve economic stability despite severe and synchronized shocks in 2020.’
In late March 2021, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a Stable Outlook.
Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) affirmed August 31 the Government of Armenia’s Ba3 local and foreign currency long-term issuer ratings and foreign currency senior unsecured rating. The outlook remains stable. -0-
