YEREVAN, September 18. /ARKA/. Armenia’s Central Bank has released the first ever statistics on households’ inflation perceptions and expectations, based on the findings of a series of surveys.
Overall, some 69.3% of the respondents said they felt the price rise, while 41.4% said they were expecting price rise.
According to the surveys, in the third quarter of 2023, some 30% of respondents believed that prices increased rapidly (in the second quarter of this year 38% thought so, and a year earlier – in the third quarter of last year – 56.3%).
Some 22.4% said that prices rose slowly (16.2% in the second quarter of this year, 11.6% in the third quarter of last year).
Another 16.7% believed that prices rose very quickly (19.7% in the second quarter of this year, 25.9% in the third quarter of last year), 16, 4% believed prices decreased (15% in the second quarter of this year, 0.4% in the third quarter of last year), 12.8% believed that prices did not change (9.8% in the second quarter of this year, 2.8% in the third quarter of last year), and 1.4% found it difficult to answer (1.2% in the second quarter of this year, 3% in the third quarter of last year).
In addition, in the third quarter of 2023, 16.4% of respondents believe that prices will rise slowly (12.5% thought so in the second quarter of this year and 11.9% a year earlier in the third quarter of last year).
Also, some 14.7% said that prices will rise quickly (18.7% in the second quarter of this year, 23.1% in the third quarter of last year).
Another 10.3% said that prices will not change (8.8% – in the second quarter of this year, 15.1% – in the third quarter of last year), 9.4% said that prices will fall (9.5% in the second quarter of this year, 3.5% in the third quarter of last year), and 7.5% believe that prices will rise very quickly (8.8% in the second quarter of this year, 6% in the third quarter of last year).
Of all respondents, 41.8% found it difficult to answer this question (the same number – in the second quarter of this year, 40.4% – in the third quarter of last year).
Prices in Armenia decreased by 0.1% y/y in July after decreasing by 0.5% a month earlier. Inflation in August continued to slow down, falling to minus 0.2% yoy, while the core inflation slowed to 0.4% yoy.
The Central Bank of Armenia at its September 12 meeting lowered also the Lombard repo rate to 11.25%. The rate of interest with which loans are provided to commercial banks was cut to 8.25%.
The government’s inflation projection for 2023 is 4% (±1.5%). In September, the Central Bank predicted that the yearend inflation will be at around 0% this year and will approach the 4% target next year. -0-
