YEREVAN, July 29. /ARKA/. The World Bank forecasts inflation in Armenia at 4.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.3% a year earlier, said Armine Manukyan, Senior Economist at the World Bank.
“As of June, the average inflation rate was 4.6%. We expect it to remain at approximately this level until the end of the year, although uncertainty remains high,” Manukyan said, responding to a question from ARKA news agency at the presentation of the World Bank report “Armenia’s Economic Pulse: Toward Poverty-Reducing Growth Through More Effective Fiscal Policy.”
According to her, after a period of extremely low inflation and deflationary trends in 2024, prices in Armenia began to rise in 2025, and their growth rate accelerated in 2026.
According to Manukyan, the main contributors to inflation are food and non-alcoholic beverages. She attributed this primarily to rising global prices.
Among other inflationary factors, the economist cited increased healthcare costs and rising transportation costs.
“We expected that rising transportation and energy costs would have a more significant impact on inflation, but so far this effect has been weaker in Armenia than in a number of other countries,” Manukyan noted.
According to her, the forecast also takes into account the possible impact of the conflict in the Middle East on domestic prices. This impact currently remains moderate, but could intensify if the conflict prolongs, trade routes are disrupted, or supply chains are disrupted.
In the medium term, the World Bank expects inflation to gradually slow to the Central Bank of Armenia’s target of 3%.
About Inflation
According to Armstat, 12-month inflation in the Armenian consumer market was 5.1% in June 2026, with deflation of 0.5% compared to May of this year.
At the same time, prices increased by 4.6% from January to June 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
The 2026 state budget of Armenia projects inflation at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to be 4.4-3.3% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), the forecast for 2027 is 3.5-3.1%, and for 2028 – 3.2-3.1%.
