YEREVAN, April 5. /ARKA/. In the absence of destabilizing shocks during 2012–2013 Armenia’s economy will return to a more uniform and rapid growth, which may amount to 6-7% per year, says the regular “CIS Macro-monitoring”, published by analytical department of Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
According to the forecasts of the analysts, the operating guidelines for the budget of Armenia imply its performance with a deficit of 3.1% of GDP in 2012 and 2.3% of GDP in 2013.
At the same time, EDB experts summed up the results of 2011, according to which Armenia is ranked second among CIS countries by the level of the lowest inflation rate in 2011 at 4.7%. The first place by this indicator takes Ukraine at 4.6%.
The study contains development forecasts of certain countries of the region, first of all in the context of the most pressing problems for them.
In particular, according to the analysts, if instability of economic situation reduces in the world, activation of investment activity and acceleration of economic growth in Russia may be expected. In the frames of this scenario, EDB experts forecast economy growth in Russia by 5% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2013. However, if oil prices fall to $90 per barrel, it is expected growth in Russian economy up to 2–3% per year.
According to the source, in 2012-2013 in Kyrgyzstan deficit in the state budget is forecasted at 5.1% of GDP. With slowing growth of economies of Russia and Kyrgyzstan, may reduce the volume of money transfers. This will affect the stability of the balance of payments of current transactions which is forecasted on the level of 7% of GDP.
By geological proximity of European countries can be expected a significant impact on the recession in euro zone on the economy of Moldova. First of all, it will affect the increase of trade imbalance and reduction of income from labor migrants. But in 2013 positive impact of anti-crisis measures and return of rapid growth rates is expected.
According to the report, in 2011 rehabilitation of economies of CIS countries favorably affected the fiscal performance of the countries in the region – even in the countries which are characterized by an imbalance of public finance, the better the situation changed with the debt – in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine the share of external debt in GDP reduced in average by 6 p.p.
Moreover, characteristic feature of the last year became record-high harvest which, along with the effect of “low base” of the previous year formed average growth in agriculture on the level of 20%.
Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial organization founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the purpose of supporting the development of market economy of participant-countries, their stable economic growth and expansion of mutual economic-trade relations. Charter capital of EDB exceeds $1.5 billion. Participant-countries of the Banks are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation and Tajikistan. —0–
