YEREVAN, May 2. /ARKA/. Last week, the U.S. dollar’s average exchange rate at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange dropped by 0.08% to 392.00 drams.
The weekly trading amounted to 13.235 million U.S. dollars, which was 0.04 % less compared to the week earlier. The average selling rate of cash dollar lost 0.04% and on Sunday, April 29, reached 393.31 drams. U.S. dollar’s drop in Armenia is justified by the USD exchange rate’s fall at FOREX market due to the comments made by U.S. Federal Reserve Head Ben Bernanke on possibility to conduct additional economy prompting if necessary.
In the coming week U.S. dollar’s rate in Armenia will remain stable due to May holidays and low business activity. However, if the American currency strengthens in the world due to the demand for it, USD may rise.
The increased amount of USD purchase made by population and business will also contribute to U.S. dollar’s rise. Indeed, according to Central Bank’s review, commercial banks sold total of 17.233 million dollars last week, which is 11.03% higher from a week earlier.
Average sell rate of USD cash in Armenia will be in the range of 392.0 – 394.50 drams in the coming week.
Euro rate in Armenia last week was influenced by the activities on FOREX market where EUR/USD pair advanced by 0.26% to 1,3251.
Early last week the euro exchange rate tumbled due to political volatility in Netherlands and after Nikolas Sarcozy lost the first round of the presidential elections in France. The euro’s situation was worsened by the statistics coming from European zone. The statistic showed low activity in industrial sector as well as services sphere.
However, on Tuesday, April 24, euro could recover its losses due to U.S. Federal Reserve’s regular session on interest rate as well as press conference of its head Ben Bernanke. The outcomes of the session somehow disappointed the market participants and provoked euro trading. However, as it was mentioned above, the euro could recover its losses after B.Bernanke referred to the possibility to prompt new measures if economy needs that.
As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia last week climbed 0.48% to 523.82 drams.
This week, the dynamics of the euro in the world and, accordingly, in Armenia will be determined by news from FOREX market. Of American news we should highlight publication of PMI index by Institute for Supply Management, the number of new jobs announced by ADP agency and the change in the number of the employed in non-agricultural sector in April. The expected moderately positive statistics from the USA may support the euro. However, if the statistics is worse than expected, euro may continue its growth.
Of European news we should highlight the publication of the final data for the PMI composite index for April, as well as a regular session of ECB on interest rate and the traditional press conference of its chief Mario Draghi . According to our estimates, the European regulator will not make any surprising decisions related to the monetary policy. This fact may have positive impact on euro quotes. We suppose that Regulator Managing Board, possibly, will turn to the waiting strategy for assessing the effect from liquidity provision decision.
In the coming week the expected fluctuation range of euro at FOREX market will be within 1,3050-1,3430. The average selling rate of euro cash in Armenia this week will be within 515 – 535 drams.
The average selling rate of the Russian ruble jumped by 0.27 % to 13.31 drams for the previous week due to increase in the ruble’s value against USD touched off by Ben Bernake’s comments mentioned above.
The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the dram this week will depend on the emerging macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the euro area. The expected moderately positive statistics from U.S. labor market can put a pressure on euro quotes. However, if this statistics is worse than expected, Russian ruble may continue its growth. Of European news we should underline the ECB’s decision on interest rate. Draghi’s moderately optimistic comments on euro zone’s perspectives may support ruble. The average selling rate of cash ruble in Armenia over the next five trading days is likely to be within 13.20 – 13.40 drams.
Mikael Verdyan, analyst at GK FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA
The opinion of the author may not necessarily reflect the opinion of ARKA
