YEREVAN, March 20. /ARKA/. Despite all the forecasts of the last week, an average rate of the Armenian dram broke through 410-415 drams and rushed to the new high of 420 drams per $1.
Last week the analysts anticipated AMD rate would not even grow to 415 per $1 till the end of March.
Mikael Verdyan, GC FOREX CLUB analyst, commented to ARKA on forex market situation in the country. He said “the defined high record has already been broken and AMD rushed to the new high of 420 drams.”
On March 19, an average weighted exchange rate of USD at NASADAQ OMX ARMENIA was 417.37 drams, which was higher by 2.37 points from March 13.
At the same time, USD rose by 1.51 points to 415.75 per $1 on March 19 from March 15.
Verdyan noted such upturn was touched off by USD dynamics at the global markets amid the situation around Cyprus and a big demand for USD at the Armenian market.
The expert also said the volume of transfers didn’t grow significantly in March. This, in turn, encouraged the market dealers to buy dollars.
The expert said the scenario of sharp exchange rate fluctuations is not possible as the regulator “will not let it happen.”
According to him, the number of currency deals imply about the possible intervention of the Central Bank.
“The session of the Federal Reserve will be held tomorrow. USD growth rates will accelerate if the Federal Reserve prefers to finish its program of quantitative easing and resolves the issue related to withdrawal strategy. It will also accelerate USD growth,” Verdyan said.
Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions, thus creating money and injecting a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy.
Verdyan thinks it is too early to speak about new fluctuation range for AMD within 415-420 drams per $1.
“As soon as we see the reaction of the dealers we can watch the correction. Only in that case we will be able to see where the lower benchmark is. The exchange rate broke through 415 AMD and rushed to 420 AMD per $1. It is too early to speak about the new fluctuation range,” he clarified.—0-
