YEREVAN, December 23. /ARKA/. Inflation in Armenia in 2015 may go out of the projected frames of 4% (±1.5%), analysis division of the Eurasian Development Bank says in a fresh issue of its CIS Macromonitor.
The bank’s analysts say that this may happen because of the currency devaluation effect and correction of prices after the country’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union.
Inflation in Armenia was recorded at 2.6% in late November and is still standing close to the bottom of the projected range.
“Despite the possible (inflation) speedup amid the current devaluation of the dram, it should remain moderated because of the impacts coming from the outside (the fall in prices for energy carriers) and the tightening of monetary policy,” they say in their report.
The Eurasian Development Bank analysts say year-on-year inflation slowed down to 1.5% in the third quarter of this year and 1.8% in the first half of this year despite additional relaxation of the monetary policy and a slight speedup in lending growth and increase of money supply.
According to the central bank’s forecast, changes in the national currency’s exchange rate will create additional inflation pressures ranging between 1.5 and 2% in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of the next year, and after that this effect will melt away throughout the year.
Despite that, the regulator says, inflation in Armenia will stand within the projected range 4% (±1.5%).
The central bank also said in its latest report that Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union will create slight inflation risks, which are able to drive inflation rate only 0.4 percentage points up in 2015, and without taking into account customs preferences 1-1.5%.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, a 2.8-percent year-on-year inflation was recorded in the country in Jan-Nov 2014.
In the government budget for 2014, inflation was projected at 4% (±1.5%). The same is projected for 2015. —-0—–
