YEREVAN, May 31. /ARKA/. Armenia’s Central Bank has revised upwards its economic growth forecast for 2016 to 2.7-3.6%, up from its previous forecast of 1.5-2.6%. These figures can be found in the regulator’s report on inflation and fiscal policies in the second quarter of 2016.
The Central Bank attributed the upward revision to higher-then-expected growth in such sectors as industry and services.
The Central Bank said also it expects that the drop in remittances from Russia to Armenia will slowdown along with falling impact of private money transfers on the domestic demand, which will be mitigated by the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and low deflationary environment. In these circumstances, domestic demand is expected to increase by 1%, which is lower than its balance value.
Thus, due to weak domestic demand, the economic growth will be stimulated largely by net exports, which in turn, is due to structural reforms of recent years and favorable processes in industry, agriculture and services.
“The gradual recovery in domestic demand, effective implementation of government programs to stimulate exports and investment, gradual improvement of the external environment and structural reforms will accelerate Armenia’s economic growth in 2017,’ said the regulator.
According to the Central Bank, economic growth will accelerate in 2017 to 3-4.5% on the wave of growing foreign trade.
According to the National Statistical Service, the economic activity index in Armenia in January-March 2016 increased by 5.5% compared to the same period in 2015
The government’s projection of GDP growth for 2016 is 2.2%. World Bank’s forecast is 1.9%, that of IMF is 2.2% and that of EBRD is 2%. -0-
