YEREVAN, April 12. /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank forecasts a moderate four-percent economic growth in 2018 to Armenia.
In its Asian Development Outlook 2018 “How Technology Affects Jobs”, the ADB says that GDP growth will stand at 4.2%.
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/411666/ado2018.pdf
Inflation is predicted to remain below 3.0% and the current account deficit to widen further toward 3.0% of GDP in 2018 and in 2019 inflation is thought to be recorded at 2.2.
«Growth jumped to 7.5% in 2017, following near-zero growth in 2016, on stronger demand both at home and abroad. Inflation returned, at 1.0%, and the current account deficit widened slightly to equal 2.5% of GDP,» the ADB says.
In the Armenian government budget for 2018, GDP growth is projected at 4.5%.
The Armenian office of the ADB says that this forecast implies long-lasting favorable environment and acceleration of structural reforms aimed at administration improvement and promotion of private investments and export.
Continued fiscal consolidation is critical to reduce high public debt.
The monetary policy will be tightening in 2018 for resisting the growing inflation pressure.
According to the Asian Development Bank’s forecast for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Azerbaijan will have a 1.7% GDP growth in 2018, Georgia 4.5%, Kazakhstan 3.2%, Kyrgyzstan 3.5%, Tajikistan 6%. Turkmeniastan 6.5% and Uzbekistan 5.5%.
The ADB changed its outlooks for Asian developing countries upward – to 6% in 2018 and to 5.9% in 2019.
«Growth picked up across most of the economies in developing Asia, supported by continued high demand for exports and rapidly expanding domestic demand,» the ADB says in its report.
Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, driven primarily by fears of escalating trade tensions. Recent US tariffs on select products have not yet dented trade, but further actions by the US and counteractions against them could undermine business and consumer confidence in Asia and the Pacific.
Higher US interest rates could accelerate capital outflows, although this risk is mitigated to some degree by abundant liquidity throughout the region. Fortunately, most Asian economies are well positioned to meet these challenges. –0—
