YEREVAN, February 23. /ARKA/. Taking into account the narrowing budget deficits and high nominal GDP growth, the international rating agency S&P Global Ratings forecasts that Armenia’s public debt net of liquid assets will remain broadly stable at a moderate 44% of GDP in the medium term.
“The fiscal risks associated with the refugee housing program in Armenia have decreased compared to our previous expectations. The program remains limited for Armenian citizens, significantly reducing participation rates, and its expenditures are now capped and included within the medium-term budget framework, reducing the risk of open-ended liabilities,” the report states.
As the agency’s analysts point out, “although faster naturalization (the acquisition of Armenian citizenship by former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh who have fled the region) may increase housing costs over time, this risk appears manageable and is unlikely to significantly impact the underlying dynamics of the public debt.”
About the Public Debt
According to the Ministry of Finance, Armenia’s total public debt as of December 31, 2025, amounted to $14,531.3 million, compared to $12,842.2 million as of December 31, 2024. As previously stated by Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan, Armenia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2025 will be close to 48.7%.
