YEREVAN, May 25. /ARKA/. There are two main risks for the financial stability of Armenia: one is associated with external factors, the other with internal processes, said the Chairman of the Central Bank Martin Galstyan, presenting the financial stability report for 2025.
According to him, among external risks, factors associated with high global political and economic uncertainty still remain a priority.
“As early as 2026, ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant negative supply shock to the global economy, leading to sharp increases in energy prices, increased volatility in financial markets and rising government bond yields,” he said.
In these conditions, Galstyan noted, the risks of a slowdown in global economic growth and the formation of a global inflationary environment, which largely depend on the duration of the conflict and the possible scale of further escalation, have increased significantly.
“There are estimates that even if the conflict ends today, we will still feel its consequences for several months,” he explained.
Among the internal risks, the head of the Central Bank highlighted the possible accumulation of credit risks against the backdrop of high growth rates in lending to the economy.
“In particular, the high growth rates of loans provided to households and the construction industry in recent years may become a signal of an increase in the debt burden in the sector and the accumulation of the resulting credit risks,” Galstyan emphasized.
In this regard, he noted that in contacts with private sector partners, the regulator constantly emphasizes the need for a reasonable approach to risk management.
“You don’t need to concentrate only on what is happening today. We need to look a little ahead and assess the risks that may arise in stressful situations,” said the head of the Central Bank.
