YEREVAN, May 25. /ARKA/. The Central Bank of Armenia expects inflation to return to the target level in the medium term, said Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan, answering a question from the ARKA news agency.
According to statistical data, inflation in Armenia in April amounted to 5.3% in annual terms compared to 4.5% in March. The inflation target is set in the RA state budget at the level of 3% with a permissible deviation of ±1.5 percentage points.
Galstyan noted that during discussions of the Central Bank Council on Monetary Policy, opinions are already being heard about the need to increase the refinancing rate. According to him, the difficulty lies in assessing the totality of factors influencing inflation – supply and demand.
“If this is supply driven, then naturally we must be more vigilant and patient. If it is demand-driven, we have to intervene to a certain extent,” he said at a press conference on Monday while presenting Armenia’s 2025 financial stability report.
According to the head of the Central Bank, supply factors currently dominate the inflation structure, but the regulator takes into account a wide range of circumstances. Among them, he named relations with Russia, the state of the Russian economy, the war in the Middle East, rising energy prices, possible scenarios for further development, risks of a global recession, fiscal expansion in the world and a decrease in the risk premium in Armenia.
“Our general opinion, the majority opinion, was that we should leave the interest rate unchanged for now. At the upcoming meeting, naturally, we will discuss this issue again,” Galstyan said.
Commenting on possible risks for households due to accelerating inflation and the debt burden, the head of the Central Bank noted that inflation expectations do not yet indicate such risks. According to him, this indicates confidence in the policy of the Central Bank.
According to the Central Bank’s report on monetary policy for the first quarter of 2026, inflation in Armenia by the end of 2026, depending on the scenario, is expected to be in the range of 4.4–3.3%. The forecast for 2027 is 3.5–3.1%, for 2028 – 3.2–3.1%.
