YEREVAN, February 22. /ARKA/. On February 20, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Armenia from stable to positive, affirming its long-term and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at ‘BB-/B’.
“The revision of the outlook to positive reflects our view of the potential for improving regional geopolitical and security dynamics, in particular, further progress in normalizing diplomatic and trade relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We also view Armenia’s growth prospects as favorable, and the Central Bank of Armenia’s higher international reserves and flexible exchange rate should help mitigate potential unexpected external shocks,” the agency’s website reads.
S&P analysts note that Armenia’s ratings are constrained by persistent, albeit easing, geopolitical and external security risks, a developing institutional framework, moderate per capita income, and balance of payments vulnerabilities.
“The ratings are supported by Armenia’s prudent policy framework, strong growth prospects, easing fiscal risks, and improving foreign exchange reserves,” the report states.
The document notes that progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan could reduce near-term security risks, although the prospect of a lasting peace agreement remains dependent on the signing of a binding agreement and its effective implementation.
“Political relations with Russia remain volatile, and Armenia’s dependence on trade and financial flows from Russia remains high,” the report states.
Armenian Economic Figures and Forecasts
Armenia’s state budget projects economic growth at 5.1% for 2025 and 5.4% for 2026. According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of last year, Armenia’s GDP growth is expected to be 5.9-5.9% by the end of 2025, 6.3-4.1% in 2026, and 4.9-5.3% in 2027, depending on scenario (A-B).
Armenia’s economic growth forecasts from international financial institutions include: the EDB: 6% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026; the World Bank: 5.2% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026; the IMF: 5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026; EBRD – 5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.
