YEREVAN, September 11. /ARKA/. Armenia’s economic activity index increased by 8.1% in July 2019 as opposed to the same month of 2018. Compared with June 2019, the figure upped by 3.4%, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said.
Konstantin Fedorov, head of an EDB unit, in charge of economic analyses, said the growth could have been driven by agriculture, where output growth is forecasted for the second half of 2019.
He pointed out growth in other major sectors of the economy in July 2019 – the industrial output increased by 16.1% yoy, retail and wholesale trade turnover by 9.1% yoy, construction by 4.1% yoy.
“In the third quarter of 2019, the Armenian economy can demonstrate high growth rate due to the anticipated growth in the agricultural sector,” he said.
Fedorov also noted that the budget performance indicators and the dynamics of public debt for the first half of 2019 indicate a financial improvement of the country.
The state budget surplus in January – June 2019 amounted to 121.9 billion drams (in the same period of the past year there was a deficit of 3.8 billion drams). Revenues in the reporting period amounted to 759 billion drams, an increase of 25.1% y/y. The growth was driven by the expansion of economic activity, aided by the measures of the government aimed at improving tax collection.
Armenia’s state debt decreased at the end of June 2019 to 3.308 trillion drams from 3.349 trillion drams at the end of 2018 due to a reduction in external liabilities.
In July 2019, the trade deficit widened due to an increase in some import items. Deliveries of mineral products to Armenia, most of which are natural gas and oil products, amounted to $78.7 million (+ 28.4% yoy), and vehicles to $61.3 million (+ 97.3% yoy).
According to forecasts, in the second half of 2019, one can expect an improvement in the external balance of the country amid falling prices on energy markets. At the same time, inflation fell to 0.6% yoy in August 2019 from 1.7% yoy a month earlier.
The main factor in the slowdown, according to the Bank’s analyst, was a drop in food prices by 0.3% y / y against the backdrop of growing agricultural production and a high comparison base.-0-
