Thu, 14 August
24.1 C
Yerevan
USD: 384.03 RUB: 4.80 EUR: 443.29 GEL: 142.29 GBP: 510.11

WB expects Armenia’s debt to GDP ratio to grow to about 67 percent of GDP at the end of 2022

YEREVAN, April 11, /ARKA/. The impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are likely to be significant given Armenia’s strong economic links with Russia, according to the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2022 report. The WB has downgraded its growth forecast for Armenia for 2022 to 1.2% from the pre-war 5.3%.

According to the report, growth is expected to pick up in 2023 and 2024, but at a slower pace than projected pre-war. In line with slower growth, revenue collection is expected to decline, and spending pressures are expected to rise, particularly through increased social assistance, leading to a delay in fiscal consolidation.

This will push up the debt to GDP to about 67 percent of GDP at the end of 2022, further away from statutory limits. The current account deficit is projected to widen due to lower exports and net remittances.

Exports may be boosted by an increased tourism revenues associated with an inflow of Russian citizens following the onset of the war. Higher commodity prices will keep inflationary pressures elevated in 2022, but CBA’s inflation targeting is expected to anchor inflation in the medium-term as external price pressures subside. Based on the forecasted macroeconomic impact, poverty (using the upper middle income poverty line) could reach 39.6 percent of the population in 2022, which represents a 3 percentage points increase relative to a counter-factual scenario in the absence of the war.

Vulnerability may increase due to decreased remittances, increased utility bills and increased food prices. The forecast is uncertain, with possible downgrades, given the evolving global and regional environment.

Risks include protracted conflict in Ukraine, a prolonged and more significant slowdown in Russia, further disruption in global commodity markets, and still unresolved geopolitical issues around Armenian borders. On the upside, the inflow of persons from Russia, if sustained, may have a positive impact on the economy. -0-

spot_img

POPULAR

Armenia registered an inflation rate of 3.4% in July.

According to the National Statistical Committee (NSC) of Armenia, 12-month inflation in the consumer market amounted to 3.4% in July of this year.

Average settlement rate of dram to dollar in July was 1% lower than a year ago

In July 2025, the average settlement rate of the Armenian dram to the US dollar was 384.1 drams, which is 1% lower than the same indicator in June 2024 (388.1 drams).

Euro Jumps 1.93 Points to AMD 445.22 as USD drops slightly

The average market exchange rate of the US dollar to the Armenian Dram on August 6, 2025, fell by 0.35 points compared to August 5 and amounted to AMD 383.68.

Market capitalization in July increased by 45.3% year-on-year, exceeding 463 billion drams – Armenia Stock Exchange

Armenia Stock Exchange (AMX) has summarized the trading activity for July 2025. The month showed a dynamic trading environment, highlighting growing investor confidence and market activity. 

Armenian Central Bank unveils amendments to law On Combating Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

On August 8, 2025, the law "On Amendments and Additions to the Law "On Combating Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing" will come into force in Armenia.

LATEST NEWS

spot_imgspot_imgspot_img