YEREVAN, December 9. /ARKA/. The overwhelming majority of Russian citizens who emigrated in 2022 amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and partial mobilization chose Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan.
According to Russian Border Guard Service, 3.6 million Russians left to these three former Soviet republics in the first 9 months of the year.
Since the beginning of 2022,the Armenian dram has grown by 2.5% against the Russian ruble, the Georgian lari, on the contrary, has decreased by 2.8%, while the Kazakhstani tenge has gone down by 21%.
The Armenian dram has the same dynamics as the ruble: it weakens and grows in the same years as the Russian currency, but it is generally stronger and does not depend on the oil market, says Valery Yemelyanov, a stock market expert at BCS World Investment, banki.ru news outlet reports.
“If you have had your savings in drams for the past years, you have lost nothing in dollars and euros and could even earn 20-30% this year,” he notes.
Indeed the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar has appreciated by 18% since the beginning of the year, while Armenian dram has gained 17.5%, analyst of Finam Financial Group Alexander Potavin says.
In his words, the Armenian currency has been showing strong results over the last years: during the last five years its exchange rate against dollar has appreciated by 18%, whereas during the same period of time ruble rate has lost about 7.5%.
According to Potavin, the departure of Russians to post-Soviet countries has a positive impact on the economies of the host countries.
“This is expressed primarily in the inflow of monetary capital. In turn, cash inflows have a favorable effect on the current account balances of the host countries and boost their domestic demand for goods and services,” says the expert.
For the first nine months of this year, the current account balance has improved in all the countries where Russian citizens have relocated, the analyst notes.
First of all, it concerns Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Given the current situation, most of those who have left Russia are likely to remain in the host countries in 2023, he believes.
“In this regard, we can expect that the exchange rates of national currencies of these countries will remain strong due to the capital outflow from Russia,” Potavin believes.
Yemelyanov disagrees with him. “We probably won’t see such a powerful one-step influx of Russians again,” he says.
According to him, it was the situation with hundreds of thousands of Russians crossing the border in a short period of time that triggered the fluctuation effect.
“They had large amounts of money with them. If there is no flow of refugees from Russia again, the currencies of Armenia and Georgia will not see such a strengthening wave a second time,” he concludes. -0-
