YEREVAN, September 24. /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its inflation forecast for Armenia unchanged at 4.2% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027, noting that inflation trends over the first seven months were generally in line with expectations. This is stated in the September issue of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
“Inflation accelerated in the first seven months of 2026, reflecting rising global food and commodity prices as well as disruptions to regional trade routes,” the report states.
It notes that average inflation rose to 4.5% in January–July 2026, up from 3.2% a year earlier, driven by a 7.5% increase in food prices. Prices for services rose by 2.6%, while prices for other goods increased by 1.6%.
“Year-on-year inflation, which stood at 4.5% in July 2026, exceeded the Central Bank of Armenia’s target range of 2%–4%,” the study says.
Armenia’s 2026 state budget projects inflation at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the third quarter of the current year, inflation in Armenia for 2026 is projected at 4.5%–4.2% (depending on the scenario, A or B), while the forecast for 2027 ranges from 3.4% to 2.7%.
