YEREVAN, November 3. /ARKA/. The Central Bank of Armenia says inflation may reach 5.4% later this year.
In its monetary policy program for the 4th Q 2009, the central bank predicts 4.3-percent inflation for the end of the third quarter of the next year.
According to the program, inflation will depend on expected inside and outside developments.
The central bank says that gradual economic recovery and moderate price rise on world markets will drive inflation up.
Inflation rate is believed to come close to the targeted benchmark and may climb even higher in the fist quarter of 2010.
Nevertheless, the inflation will fluctuate within the planned rate when the 12-month inflation indicator gets rid of impacts of March’s precipitous devaluation of the national currency and April’s rise in utilities prices.
Paces of economic recovery and domestic market prices impacted by world prices may make both inflation increase and decrease risks likely in the mentioned period.
Taking into account these circumstances and the results of its quarterly forecasting model, the central bank finds it reasonable to leave interest rate unchanged to speed up recovery without jeopardizing price stability.-0—
