YEREVAN, November 9. /ARKA/. Bagrat Asatryan, the director general of Garni Invest Universal Credit Organization and a former chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, thinks Armenia will record 15-percent economic decline in 2009.
International Monetary Fund predicts 15.2 to 15.6% GDP reduction in 2009, World Bank forecasts 12 to 14% economic decline and Armenian Finance Ministry finds 10 to 15% decline likely.
“The 15-percent economic decline, compared with 20% GDP reduction recorded at the fourth quarter 2008 against the results of the previous quarter, by no means shows positive progress in Armenia’s economy – this is rather improvement of comparative indicators than progress,” Asatryan said.
He thinks certain sectors will face their output reduction in the fourth quarter, as it was in previous years.
In particular, certain season sluggishness will be seen in agriculture and the planned stoppage of the nuclear power plant will drive energy sector’s indicators down.
The Central Bank’s former chairman is also skeptical about positive progress in industry.
He sees no grounds for optimistic outlook for the next year.
Asatryan thinks two-percent GDP decline may be recorded in 2010.
“The sectors driving the economy down are already seen. First of all, these are trade and services. Industry will at best retain the present stagnation.”
The Central Bank of Armenia expects one-percent economic growth in Jan-Sept 2010.
The bank also thinks the industry’s VAT will grow 0.1% thanks to expected growth in metallurgy and energy sectors.
Construction VAT is expected to grow 1.7% thanks to construction in energy, transport and communication areas.
Agriculture and services’ VAT is predicted to grow 3.8% and 0.7%. –0–
