YEREVAN, July 1. /ARKA/. Ratio of Armenia’s total debt to GDP is projected to be 41.3% in 2011, and in the coming years this indicator will be lowering, the press office of Armenia’s finance ministry reported on Friday.
The country’s debt is projected to total AMD 1.6 trillion in 2011 – foreign debt will amount to AMD 1.4 trillion, domestic debt to AMD 208.9 billion and the government’s debt to more than AMD 1.3 trillion.
According to the finance ministry’s forecast, ratio of the total state debt to GDP will be 41.1% in 2012, 39.5% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2014.
Armenia’s debt in 2009 to 2014 (AMD billion)
| 2009
actual |
2010
actual |
2011
planned |
2012
targeted |
2013
targeted |
2014
targeted |
|
| State debt | 1,270.7 | 1,379.3 | 1,597.9 | 1,731.9 | 1,804.3 | 1,892.5 |
| % to GDP | 40.4 | 39.4 | 41.3 | 41.1 | 39.5 | 38.1 |
| Foreign debt | 1,121.1 | 1,199.0 | 1,388.9 | 1,494.4 | 1,538.3 | 1,591.0 |
| Including the central bank’s debt | 189.2 | 204.5 | 239.9 | 248.2 | 207.7 | 169.8 |
| Domestic debt | 149.6 | 180.3 | 208.9 | 237.4 | 266.0 | 301.5 |
| The government’s debt | 1,081.5 | 1,174.8 | 1,358.2 | 1,483.7 | 1,596.6 | 1,722.7 |
| % to GDP | 34.4 | 33.5 | 35.1 | 35.2 | 34.9 | 34.7 |
According to the report, the government’s debt mostly consists of loans intended for developing infrastructures, particularly energy and water-supply systems. These loans have been extended to economic entities as sub-lending. These loans don’t make the government budget’s burden heavier, since these loans will be repaid by borrowers.
Financial resources provided to the economy as sub-crediting made up about one third of the government’s foreign debt in late 2010.
DMFAS 6 debt-registration electronic system was acquired in 2011. This system that is being introduced now will later be used along with other electronic programs managing state funds.
Armenia started conducting regular debt stability analyses in 2010 to gauge debt stability for short and long periods of time, taking into account macroeconomic factors impacting it.
Analyses are focused on mid-term estimation. Strategy of management of the government’s debts in 2011 has been worked out and approved as part of the mid-term state program of spending.
Results of the analyses show that no threat will be posed to debt stability, taking into account macroeconomic forecast and the planned tax and budget policy. The debt burden will be controllable.
Despite the fact that the state debt is prone to increase, its ratio to GDP will shorten thanks to faster growth of GDP.
More than that – there is room for attracting new debts, which can exceed the planned liabilities by 10% of GDP in 2012-2014 without jeopardizing debt or budget stability.
Under the Law on State Debt, on Dec 31 of the present year, state debt must not exceed 60% of previous year’s GDP.
If state debt exceeds 50% of the previous year’s GDP in late December, the next year’s budget deficit must not be higher than 3% of the average GDP for the recent three years.
Ratio of the total state debt to GDP was 49.3% in Armenia in 1999, and 16.4% in 2008. Lax loans dominated the then debt structure.
In the crisis and post-crisis years, foreign debt grew precipitously to 35.7% of GDP in 2009 and 34.2% in 2010.
However, it would be very difficult to recover and spur the national economy without enlarging the foreign debt. ($1 = AMD 368.86).-0-
