YEREVAN, December 12. /ARKA/. The average weighted exchange rate of U.S. at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange last week grew by 0.45% to 382.73 drams. Weekly trading jumped by almost 44% from the previous week to $13.60 million. The average exchange rate grew by 0.18% on Saturday to 384.48 drams.
The U.S. currency resumed its growth versus dram after a moderate correction in the previous week due to ongoing high demand for foreign currency on part of businesses and population and partly due to uncertainty about Eurozone debt.
This week the USD is very likely to grow against the background of continued instability at global financial markets up to 385 drams. However, the increasing remittances from abroad, mainly from Armenian labour migrants, which is usual at the end of the year, may prevent USD rate growth . The average selling rate of the USD in Armenia this week is likely to be within 382-387 drams.
The euro exchange rate in Armenia last week was determined by events at global forex markets, where the EUR/USD rate fell by 0.28% to 1.3365. Earlier past week the single European currency managed to rise, reaching weekly maximum of 1,3486 against the background of news from Italy that its government would adopt December 4 a package of measures to tighten fiscal policy. However, at Thursday, December 8, the European currency was unable to stand its ground against the U.S. dollar following an ECB meeting and the subsequent press conference of its chairman Mario Draghi.
As expected the European regulator has reduced the key interest rate by 0.25% to 1.0%. However, the comments of Mr. Draghi disappointed the market participants. The head of the regulator said that the central bank will not conduct large-scale purchase of debts. The Euro reacted by sharp decline versus the dollar, reaching the weekly minimum of 1.3278.
However, at the end of last trading week the European currency managed to partially recover its losses pending the outcome of the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. Finally, responding to events at global currency market, the average selling rate of euro in Armenia last week decreased by 0.62% to 516.84 drams.
This week the dynamics of euro trading will be affected by the results of the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. The decision to create a tax and fiscal union may support the European currency, but U.K. refusal to participate in this alliance may affect it. The average selling rate of euro in Armenia would be within 510-525 drams.
The average selling rate of Russian ruble in Armenia during the previous week declined by 1.98% to 12.39 drams. This was due to a moderate fall of Armenian dram against U.S. dollar and the depreciation of the ruble against the U.S. dollar.
It is expected that the U.S. Fed comments on its decision on exchange rates will be moderately negative and put pressure on the ruble. Against this background, as well as in view of partial solutions of the EU summit ruble may continue to decline this week, but this may be thwarted by macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the eurozone. The average selling rate of the ruble in Armenia over this five trading days is likely to be in the range of 12.20 – 12.55 Drams.
Mikael Verdyan, an analyst at FOREX CLUB, special for ARKA news agency.
The opinion of the author may not necessarily represent the position of the agency.
