YEREVAN, May 11. /ARKA/. Russia’s central bank has just completed a stress test of the country’s banking sector. According to the results Russian banking system is sustainable enough and its capital can withstand average stress.
To assess the stability of the banking system, officials at Russia’s central Bank conducted a stress test applying to macro-model as of January 1 of 2012. One year was taken as the possible terms for the stress.
Thus, central bank measured the impact of Europe’s debt crisis on each credit organizations.
Pessimistic scenario indicates recession for Russian economy to 2% touched off by economy tumbles in EU and 15-20% slip in oil prices and other Russian export goods. This can happen in line with increase in interest rates at Russian financial market and some drop of stock indices.
The extreme scenario ( worst option of economy development) implies GDP drop by 1.4%.
However, officials at the central bank assess the worst option as hardly to occur due to the positive development dynamics of Russia’s economy as well as favorable situation around Russian exports.
According to the calculations, if the pessimistic scenario occurs, the banking system of Russia may lose 1.4 trillion rubles in 2012 ( 27% of the total capital), and in the case of extreme option- 2 trillion rubles (37% of capital).
Credit risk will make up the largest part in losses ( 1.1 and 1.6 trillion rubles respectively): average share of “bad” loans in loan portfolio may rise from 7.7% to 11.5% at pessimistic option, and to 13.6 % – at extreme one.
Losses from market risks, depending on a scenario, may reach 280-360 billion rubles ( of them interest rate risks make up 65-81%, stock risk – 15-32%, currency risk 3-4%).
Capital deficit of 120 credit organizations may total in 56 billion rubles at pessimistic scenario, and that of 223 credit organizations- 405 billion rubles at extreme scenario. As of January 1, 2012, the share of credit institutions in the banking sector amounted 21% at pessimistic scenario, and 49.8%- at extreme one.
“The results of the stress tests show that total capital adequacy decreases to 13.1% at pessimistic scenario, and to 10.8% at extreme option,” the central bank informs. Capital adequacy minimal benchmark is 10%. –0–
