YEREVAN, June 22. / ARKA /. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Armenia’s ratio of public debt to GDP to grow to 53.1% by the yearend, according to a local economist Vilen Khachatryan.
Speaking at a news conference today Khachatryan cited IMF data, which say that Armenia’s ratio of public debt to GDP is the highest among regional countries.
For comparison, by the end of 2015 Iran’s public debt will make only 11.9% of its GDP, in Kazakhstan it is expected to grow to 17.2%, Russia’s public debt to GDP ratio is expected to be 18.8%, Azerbaijan’s figure will grow to 21.6%, Belarus will have 39.6% and Georgia 42.4%. Only Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine will have higher figures (58.8%) and Ukraine (94.1%) respectively.
However, Khachatryan compared Armenia with some other countries which have much higher figures. For example, for Greece the figure is 172%, for Italy it is 133% and for Japan it is 246%.
Khachatryan also cited another IMF data that predicts Armenia’s public debt to GDP ratio to overcome the permissible threshold of 60% by 2020 to reach 62%.
“The negative trend is obvious. For example, Armenia’s state debt in 2007 was worth 14.2% of GDP, and by 2020 it is expected to amount to 62%,” said Khachatryan.
Earlier, Armenia’s chief treasurer Atom Janjughazyan said the public debt will grow to $4.9 billion by the end of 2015, up from $4.4 billion at the end of 2014 and a public debt / GDP ratio of 40.4%.
By a vote of 63 to 32 an extraordinary session of parliament adopted today in the first reading a bill that calls for replacing the notion “state debt” by “government debt.”
Under Armenia’s law public debt cannot exceed 60 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The government-designed bill suggests leaving the 60-percent limit only for the government debt, exempting the Central Bank from the limit.
The bill was opposed by several lawmakers. Thus, Tevan Poghosyan from Heritage faction said the law is being revised to allow the Central Bank to attract fresh loans without restriction. He said the law would push Armenia towards critical point after which it would have to default.
Artsvik Minasyan from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation said the bill suggest that the government is in dire situation and has to take radical steps that will only raise Armenia’s debt.
IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, Ms. Teresa Sanchez said earlier the level of Armenia’s external debt is within “uncomfortable” range. According to her, the government should take measures to reduce the external debt as compared to the GDP ratio. -0-
