YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. In an exclusive interview with ARKA news agency the Resident Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Armenia Yulia Ustyugova said economic growth is expected to moderate to about 4½ percent in 2019, reflecting a weaker global environment and copper prices, and remain in the 4-5 percent range over the medium term.
She also said CPI inflation is projected to gradually converge to the CBA’s target of 4 percent over the next two years.
‘We expect the current account deficit to improve to about 6-7 percent of GDP in 2019 and to around 5 percent of GDP in the medium term. The fiscal deficit is projected at around 2½ percent of GDP in 2019 and 2 percent of GDP in the medium term,’ she said.
‘In our view, the risks to the outlook are mainly external. They include increased global trade tensions or turbulence in global financial markets, which could lower trading partners’ growth and commodity prices, or a pickup in regional geopolitical tensions,’ she said.
In her words, the key challenge facing the policymakers is to press ahead with the carefully-planned structural reforms while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability.
The Armenian government’s projection of GDP growth for 2019 is 4.9%. -0-
