YEREVAN ,November 30, /ARKA/ According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Macroeconomic Forecast for 2020, the EDB expects inflation to slow down in 2021 in most countries in the region.
Thus, the growth rate of the consumer price index in Armenia will decrease to 1.1% (from 1.2% at the end of 2020), in Belarus to 5.5% (from 6.4%), in Kazakhstan to 5.3% (from 7.3%), in the Kyrgyz Republic to 5.2% (from 6.5%), in Russia to 3.5% (from 4.2%), and in Tajikistan to 5.3% (from 8.5%).
Restrained domestic demand will continue to limit the growth of consumer prices in the EDB member countries. Pressure on inflation from national currency rates and global food prices is expected to gradually decrease.
The Macroeconomic Forecast also notes that, because of persistently high risks, the EDB’s projections remain shifted toward lower estimates. If the rapid increase in the infection rates cannot be quickly contained and the massive dissemination of vaccines takes more time than expected, losses in economic growth rates will be greater than in the baseline scenario.
The EDB calculates that, if the global economy recovers at a slower pace (twice as slow as in the baseline projection), next year’s oil price will be around US $41 per barrel, which is almost 16% below the level assumed in the baseline scenario. In such case, in 2021 Russia and Kazakhstan’s GDPs would lose about 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points of their growth, respectively. -00-
