YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. The pace of price growth in Armenia is expected to gradually increase in the coming months, driven by the easing of monetary policy and the recovery in global food prices, according to the weekly macro review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
“According to our forecasts, inflation in 2025 will return to the target range of the Central Bank of Armenia,” the study states.
EDB analysts note that food prices continued to rise in Armenia in January, increasing by 2.5% year-on-year (y/y), compared to 2.0% y/y in the previous month.
“In January, the growth in prices for services remained at a high level of 2.6% y/y, up from 2.5% y/y in December. Disinflation in the non-food sector continues to slow down, with a 1.5% y/y increase in January, compared to 1.8% y/y the previous month,” the review notes.
Inflation Figures and Forecasts
The Armenian state budget for 2025 projects inflation at 3% (±1%). In January, inflation in Armenia was 1.7% y/y, up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of last year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range between 3.9% and 3.2% by the end of 2025, with forecasts of 4.2% to 3.8% for 2026 and 4% for 2027.
The World Bank expects inflation in Armenia to be 3.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. The IMF predicts that prices in Armenia will rise by 3.7% in 2025. According to ADB forecasts, inflation in Armenia will be 2.5% in 2025. The EDB expects inflation in Armenia to be around 3.1% by the end of the current year.
