YEREVAN, April 18. /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects inflation in Armenia to accelerate in 2026, despite slower growth.
“This reflects the impact of higher global energy prices and transport costs related to the conflict in the Middle East. Average inflation is projected to increase to 3.8% in 2026 before moderating to 3.2% in 2027 as pressures gradually ease,” according to the ADB Asian Development Outlook (April 2026).
The bank’s analysts expect monetary policy to remain cautious while continuing to support growth, and forecast monthly inflation to approach the upper bound of the central bank’s target range of 3.0% ±1.0 percentage points. by the end of 2026.
Fiscal policy in 2026 will be more accommodative, and continued improvements in tax administration and legislation will support total revenues, projected at 25.8% of GDP.
“Expenditures are expected to reach the equivalent of 30.3% of GDP in 2026, with priority given to social sectors and capital expenditures, the latter projected at around 5.8% of GDP,” the document states.
According to Armstat, 12-month inflation in the Armenian consumer market in March of this year was 4.5%. The 2026 state budget of Armenia projects inflation at 3% (±1%). According to the Central Bank’s monetary policy report for the first quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to be 4.4-3.3% by the end of 2026, depending on scenario (A-B), the forecast for 2027 is 3.5-3.1%, and for 2028 – 3.2-3.1%.
