YEREVAN, April 20. /ARКА/. The week in the Armenian financial market was influenced by updated assessments from international financial institutions, monetary policy signals, and the continued stability of the foreign exchange market. The agenda included issues of inflation, debt sustainability, and capital market development. Particular attention was paid to the parameters of Armenia’s interaction with the IMF under the current SBA agreement.
1. International Financing: Armenia May Access $25.3 Million from the IMF under the SBA in June
The IMF team reached an agreement with the Armenian authorities to complete the first review of the three-year Stand-By Arrangement. As noted in a statement on April 17, the IMF Executive Board may grant Armenia access to approximately $25.3 million (SDR 18.4 million) in June, bringing total access since the inception of the program to approximately $50.6 million (SDR 36.8 million).
The 36-month SBA agreement, amounting to SDR 128.8 million, was approved on December 4, 2025, as an instrument to support macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and insurance against uncertainty. This does not entail an immediate change in the domestic monetary environment, but rather the preservation of external financial and institutional resources that can be taken into account when assessing the sustainability of the macroeconomic framework and the country’s international liquidity. 2. Public Debt: ADB Projects Armenia’s Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio at 51.5% in 2026
The Asian Development Bank projects Armenia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to be 51.5% by the end of 2026, assuming no potential exchange rate pressure on the dram from heightened external uncertainty. The recently released April Asian Development Outlook also estimates that this ratio will stabilize at around 52% of GDP in the medium term. This could serve as an important benchmark for assessing the fiscal framework, borrowing costs, and debt sustainability, and is a key indicator of macro-financial sustainability.
3. Foreign Exchange Market: Dram Strengthens Against the Dollar While the Euro Fluctuates
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the average market exchange rate for the US dollar fell from 375.19 to 373.34 drams between April 13 and 18. The euro exchange rate for the same period ranged between 438.75 and 440.35 drams, peaking at 442.61 drams on April 14. The Russian ruble exchange rate was 4.9341 drams on April 13 and 4.8937 drams on April 18. This dynamic may reflect the continued controlled volatility in the foreign exchange market with the major currencies moving in different directions, creating a stable environment for current settlements and currency revaluations.
4. Monetary Policy: The IMF indicated the Central Bank’s readiness to tighten if necessary.
Following its visit to Armenia, the IMF mission issued a statement on April 17 that the Central Bank should be prepared to raise the refinancing rate to return inflation to the target level. The role of a flexible exchange rate as a mechanism for smoothing external shocks, as well as the sufficient level of international reserves, were also emphasized.
The statement was made in the context of accelerating inflation and persistent external uncertainty.
The market received clarification on the scope of possible regulatory actions without changing current parameters. This could strengthen the role of interest rate policy in liquidity and asset management.
5. Inflation: ADB expects average annual price growth to accelerate to 3.8%
The Asian Development Bank forecasts average inflation in Armenia at 3.8% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The bank’s recently released Asian Development Outlook report attributes price increases to higher global energy prices and transportation costs associated with the Middle East conflict.
This assessment could provide additional guidance for the monetary and financial agenda, in which external price signals continue to directly impact domestic conditions.
6. Banking sector: net remittance inflow increased approximately 3.5-fold
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the net inflow of cross-border transfers to individuals in January–February 2026 amounted to $303 million, up from $87.5 million a year earlier. In February, the figure reached $133.9 million.
The increased transfer inflow could support domestic demand and bank operations, enhancing the importance of the retail segment and cross-border settlements. 7. Capital Markets: ADB Highlights Need for Deepening and Diversification
In their April Asian Development Outlook report, ADB analysts noted that Armenia’s capital market remains limited in depth and structure, with a high share of government securities and a narrow investor base. The bank emphasized the need to expand access to capital market financing, deepen non-government securities markets, increase investor participation, and eliminate regulatory, institutional, and personnel constraints.
In practice, this may indicate a continuation of the institutional agenda to develop the exchange segment, attract new issuers, and expand the investment base.
Weekly Summary
The main focus this week was on inflation and interest rate signals, debt sustainability parameters, and external financial support channels.
At the same time, the foreign exchange market remained stable. Key areas of focus remain the fiscal framework, interaction with the IMF, and the financial system’s ability to maintain resilience in the face of external uncertainty.
