YEREVAN, August 27. /ARKA/. Last week the U.S. dollar’s average weighted exchange rate at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange dropped by 0.49% to 409.50 drams with weekly trading amounting to USD 8.65 million, 37.8% lower from a week earlier. The average selling rate of cash dollar decreased by 0.42% to 410.98 drams as of Saturday, August 25. This tendency last week occurred due to USD drop at FOREX market amid the growing hopes for new stimulus by the American regulator. And this can be the reason for USD to continue falling this week.
An average USD exchange at NASDAQ OMX Armenia may fetch up 408.50 drams. However, if the U.S. Federal Reserve President Mr. Bernanke’s comments disappoint the market members concerning the new stimulus, the American currency may grow either against the euro or the Armenian dram.
Thus, an average weighted selling rate of cash dollar may be within 408-413 drams this week.
Euro rates in Armenia depended on FOREX market, where EUR/USD rose by 1.47% to 1.2512 due to the expectations that the European regulator will announce on the additional measures directed to easing the tense situation around the government bonds of Italy and Spain.
On 22 August the euro got a significant impetus for rising following the U.S. Federal Reserve protocols implying that the American regulator is ready to launch a new phase of economy stimulus. Many market members welcomed the initiative.
However, at the week’s out, the euro quotes somehow dropped as the investors expressed concerns around the talks between Greece and the Eurozone leaders. As a result, an average weighted selling rate of euro cash in Armenia climbed 1.03% to 517.12 drams last week.
Euro dynamics will mainly depend on economic data from the USA and the Eurozone this week. Of American news we should focus on consumer confidence and business activity by Chicago PMI in August, personal consumer expenses at housing market in July, and the reviewed U.S. second-quarter GDP. The expected moderately positive statistics from overseas may mitigate the expectations on quantitative stimulus thus pressuring the euro quotes.
Of the European news we should highlight business conditions in Germany by IFO, and the final numbers of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in August. Weak economic statistics from the region will hinder the euro advance.
At the same time, the market members will concentrate on the annual economic symposium, held in Wyoming, August 31, Friday. If Mr. Bernanke doesn’t mention the quantitative stimulus decision, the market members will be highly disappointed, and the euro quotes will drop. The anticipated euro fluctuation range at FOREX in Armenia this week will be 1.2300 -1.2700. The average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week will likely be in the range of 510 – 525 drams.
The average selling rate of cash Russian ruble last week climbed by 0.46% to 13.09 drams due to ruble’s increase against USD amid oil prices upturn.
The cost of ruble against USD this week will be depending on U.S. macroeconomic statistics and Eurozone, as well as oil prices dynamics. The expected weak data from Europe may weaken the ruble’s positions.
The average selling rate of the ruble in Armenia is likely to be in the range of 13.00 – 13.20 drams.
Mikael Verdyan, an analyst for FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA.
The opinion of the author may not necessarily represent those of the agency. —0–
