YEREVAN, November 24./ARKA/. The Armenian dram plunged yesterday to its record low in the last eight years – the national currency fell 16.6 percentage points against the U.S. dollar, which was traded at 435 drams, on average.
According to Armenia’s stock exchange, the dram sank 4 percentage points on Monday.
The Central Bank of Armenia said in its statement that the national currency’s value fully reflects the current developments at regional and international financial markets and is on the way to stabilization.
The correction of the dram’s exchange rates is prompted by these developments and is favorable for enhancement of export competitiveness and economic growth as well as creation and maintenance of stable jobs and purchasing power of the money transfers received by the population.
International experts say the revaluation of the U.S. dollar at international markets is mainly due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to wrap up the QE (quantitative easing) program.
Some Armenian experts think such a precipitous surge of the dollar was prompted by outside factors.
“It should be taken into consideration that this is the third consecutive year the U.S. economy shows growth, which impacts the euro-dollar exchange rate, which on its side impacts exchange rates of other currencies, including the Armenian dram,” Tatul Manaseryan, head of Alternative Research Center told ARKA News Agency.
He is convinced that the Russian ruble’s devaluation has little impact on the dram’s value, and its influence on the Armenian national currency should not be exaggerated.
The U.S. dollar leapt more than 20% against the Russian currency on Monday and traded at 45 rubles.
In his opinion, the dollar’s value is unlikely to reach 500 drams – it may trade at 450 to 460 drams.
According to Manaseryan’s forecast, the Armenian national currency may go up or down, depending on how much not only Armenia’s but also Russia’s government reserves will allow usage of resources for interventions.
Bagrat Asatryan, former head of the central bank, on his side, said the Armenian dram’s devaluation was caused by slowdown in economic growth and some outside factors, first of all by the dwindling financial inflows, particularly investments and money transfers.
The Central Bank of Armenia says its reserves are absolutely sufficient for preventing any artificial fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and ensuring financial stability.
The regulator sold $60.75 million at the country’s forex market for the last three weeks. It has sold $203.38 million and bought $50.15 million since the beginning of this year. –0–
