YEREVAN, May 26. /ARKA/. The first-quarter economic growth in Armenia will stand between 2.1 and 2.5 percent, the Central Bank of Armenia says in its inflation report based on its monetary policy for the second quarter of this year and the first quarter’s results.
The central bank says domestic demand grew more than expected in the first quarter since private consumption was falling slower than before amid low investment activity that was in tune with outlooks.
It particularly applies to the flagging construction and the slowing growth in corporate lending.
According to the central bank’s report, private consumption spending will shrink 1.3% and private investments 7.4% in the 1stQ 2015, compared with the 1st Q 2014.
«Adverse impacts from the above-mentioned factors on aggregate demand were partially mitigated by the lagged influence of the expansionary tax and budgetary and monetary policies,» the regulator says in its report.
Some rally in supply in the economy was due to a faster-than-expected growth in agriculture and a slower-than-expected decline in construction.
Industrial output grew 2%, gross agriculture product 4.5%, construction 0.8% and services 3.9%, while trade fell 6.4%. As a result, economic activity stood at 2.5% in the first quarter.
Taking into account the current developments, the Central Bank of Armenia says the first quarter’s growth is believed to be recorded at 2.1 to 2.5%.
The regulator improved its economic growth outlook for 2015 and expects 1.6 to 2.6% GDP growth.
In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth is projected at 4.1% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%).
Many international financial organizations lowered their outlooks for economic growth in Armenia in 2015. According to the latest reports, the World Bank predicts 0.8% economic growth, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts 1.5%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects stagnation and Asian Development Bank a 1.6% growth.
Fitch agency expects a mild recession triggered by deterioration in things in Russia and Moody’s forecasts a 2.3% growth. –0–
