YEREVAN, September 15. /ARKA/. Armenia’s Central Bank has revised its GDP decline forecast for 2020 to 6.2% , Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan told reporters on Tuesday.
He said according to the updated estimates, the country’s economy will drop this year by 6.2%, up from the earlier predicted decline within 4%.
According to him, the decline is being driven by a drop in such areas of economic activity as agriculture (a decline of 1.1%, instead of the previously predicted 0.4%), construction (a decline of 18.7%, instead of the previously predicted 11.2%) …
“The main reason for the decline in the construction sector is that the number of transactions does not decrease against the background of the lack of growth in construction work, which is due to the problem with statistics, when not yet commissioned buildings are not taken into account,” Galstyan said.
At the same time, he noted that a positive shift is being observed in the industry (a decline is expected within 2%, instead of the previously envisaged 2.2%), which is associated with the export of raw materials and high prices on the international market. The main component, which is to be blamed for the decline is private consumption, he said.
Armenia’s economic activity in July 2020 was 9.7% up from the same month in 2019, according to the numbers, released by the National Statistical Committee (NSC). However, the first seven-month activity in 2020 was 5.7% down from the same time span of 2019.
On April 29, the National Assembly of Armenia approved a revision of 2020 budget indicators, prompted by the spread of COVID-19. The budget forecast for GDP was reduced to a decline of 2%, down from the originally projected growth of 4.9%. The budget deficit was increased to 340 billion drams, or 5% of GDP, up from previous projection of 2.3%. ($1 – 488.57 drams). –0–
