YEREVAN, March 17. /ARKA/. In January and February 2026, inflation in Armenia amounted to 3.8% y/y and 4.3% y/y, respectively, according to the EDB’s March review.
Meanwhile, inflation by the end of 2025 rose to 3.3% y/y, after 1.5% y/y in 2024, primarily due to rising global food prices.
The acceleration in the first two months of this year was driven by food price dynamics (5.9% y/y and 6.4% y/y in January and February, respectively, after 4.3% y/y at the end of 2025). Inflation in the services segment also accelerated slightly to 3.2% y/y (from 2.9% y/y in January 2026 and 3.1% y/y in December 2025), while non-food price growth remained at 0.9% y/y.
The bank’s analysts forecast consumer price growth of 3.3% y/y by the end of this year.
According to the bank’s review, inflation reached the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia’s target range (3±1%) in February 2025. Under these conditions, the refinancing rate reduction cycle was suspended until the end of the year. The regulator lowered the rate to 6.5% in December 2025, and at its meeting on February 3, 2026, decided to maintain the rate, given the prevailing risks of external inflationary pressure and the development of risks of overheating domestic demand. The EDB forecasts that the rate will remain at around 6.5% in the first half of 2026.
