YEREVAN, April 8./ARKA/.Gold prices were stable during the past five trading days. However, most of the time the prices were downing and reached the new more than ten-month minimum of 1,540.09 USD per troy ounce since the safe heaven assets appeared not as attractive as they used to. In addition, the USA demonstrated steady economic growth and rally on stock markets. The investors were also concerned over contradictory statements by Federal Reserve representatives related to earlier terms for terminating the stimulus measures. Strong USD and no data that could affect metal markets didn’t bring up any optimism as well.
However, the disappointing labor statistics from overseas drove the investors to purchase gold at the end of the week, thus raising optimism around longer terms for stimulus measures. The number of new jobs in non-agricultural sector of the USA rose by 88,000 in March versus expected 190,000 As a result, the gold price dropped by 0.98% to 1,580.86 USD per troy ounce. Early this week the gold prices may rise amid some weak global macroeconomic statistics and USD dropping. Though we don’t exclude the scenario of consolidation. The resistance level for the next five trading days can be 1,620.0 USD per troy ounce.
The big event that can affect the gold prices is a publication of protocols from the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve which will take place on April 10. We expect the protocols can intimate the quantitative stimulus program can be finished within some earlier terms because the recent statements by some representatives of Federal Reserve display disputes over monetary and credit policy. If these forecasts come true, gold quotes may be seriously affected.
Gold prices continue to stay under the pressure as the market investors reduce their long positions. These statistics was published by CFTC for the last week. Meanwhile, we expect the gold prices to vary within 1,524.0 – 1,630.0 USD per troy ounce. Gold quotes may maximally drop to 1,450.0 USD per troy ounce this week.
Gold dynamics will also depend on macroeconomic statistics from the USA and eurozone. Of the American news we should focus on retail trade statistics for March, preliminary confidence index by University of Michigan for April, and the number of primary unemployment allowance applications for the last week. Of the European news we should highlight the inflation figures for March and the monthly report of the ECB. Moderately positive statistics from overseas and weak one from eurozone will pressure the gold quotes. The supporting benchmark for gold this week may be 1,538.0 USD per troy ounce.
Copper prices downed by 0.70% to 3.3420 USD per pound. Nevertheless, no exact trading tendency was reported at the reported period. Copper quotes primarily tumbled at the first half of the last week. They dived to the new eight-month minimum of 3.3035 USD per pound. The quotes were mainly affected by the statistics from the U.S. processing industry and China, as well as strong USD.
At the same time, record high reserve of this asset at London Metal Exchange also ensured fall in copper quotes.
Copper quotes this week can rise amid USD tumble. Protocols of the U.S. Federal Reserve can also affect the copper quotes.
Copper dynamics will also depend on the news from China, particularly, foreign trade statistics. Import statistics may provoke hike in copper prices. However, if against the forecasts this statistics is worse than expected, copper prices may fall. The anticipated fluctuation range for copper quotes this week will be 3.26 – 3.42 USD per pound.
Mikael Verdyan, an analyst at FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA news agency.
The opinion of the author does not necessarily reflect that of the agency.—0-
