YEREVAN, April 8. / ARKA /. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a slow recovery of the Armenian economy in the next 2-4 years predicting also a 3-3.5% GDP growth, down from its earlier predicted 4.5-5% medium-term growth, the head of the IMF Mission in Armenia, Mark Horton, told a news conference today.
Mr. Horton said prospects of Armenia’s mid-term growth are being affected by Russia’s downward-revised mid-term economic growth prospects.
According to him, Armenia’s economic growth may be constrained by higher external debt, making implementation of some structural reforms necessary, in particular, increasing the openness and integration of the economy.
He said these are complex measures that have been implemented relatively slow in the past few years, but today in the light of the need for dramatic economic growth their importance grows.
According to the National Statistical Service, Armenia’s foreign debt at the end of 2014 stood at $3.785.2 billion, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year.
According to Mr. Horton, there are also other factors that can have a positive impact on Armenia’s economic growth, particularly, rising oil prices, increasing economic activity in Russia and also a framework agreement reached on Iran’s nuclear program, ‘although no specific calculations were made with regard to latter.’
According to the updated forecast of IMF, economic growth in Armenia’s in 2015 will be close to zero.
Armenian economy in 2014 grew by 3.4%, down from the projected 5.2%. Earlier this year the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said the Armenian economy is expected to stagnate in 2015 due to depreciation of the Russian ruble that has increased pressures on the currencies of economies with strong trade, investment and remittances ties to Russia. Its previous forecast for Armenia was 3.5%.
The World Bank has also downgraded the outlook for Armenia to 0.8% in 2015 from its previous forecast of 3.3 %. The government’s projection of GDP for this year is 4.1%; the projected inflation rate is 4% (± 1.5%). -0-
