YEREVAN, August 24. /ARKA/. The annual growth of the capital of Armenian banks is expected to average 22.7% at a period between 2016 and 2018, the Central Bank of Armenia says in its report ‘Possible Developments of Armenia’s Banking Sector in 2016-02018’ based on programs of prospective development of Armenian banks.
According to the report, the country’s banks expect that their aggregate liabilities will grow 6.4%, on average, every year over the mentioned period and that they will increase 20.2% for these three years.
They also expect a 27.2% increase in individual and corporate deposits in 2016-2018.
As a result, the share of individual and corporate deposits in the total amount of liabilities will grow by 3.54 percentage points from 60.6% in late 2015 and will reach 64.1% in 2018 – individual deposits are expected to grow 28.9% and corporate deposits 23.8% over the mentioned period.
Armenia’s commercial banks also forecast 32.2% increase in financial means attracted from other financial organizations.
The banks project the average annual growth of their assets at 8.8% and the 2016-2018 growth at 28.7%.
Their aggregate loan portfolio is believed to be built up thanks to 14.9-percent average annual increase in consumer loans, 13.5% growth in commercial loans and 11.3% growth in lending of the processing industry.
Average annual growth of mortgage lending in 2016-2018 is expected to stand at 14.6% and the three-year growth at 50.4%. The share of mortgage lending in the commercial banks’ aggregate loan portfolio will change by 0.4 percentage points to 8.7%.
As for interest rates, banks’ outlooks are different. Some of them think that large players will continue attracting financial means from abroad, and that will become an obstacle for lending and raising inertest rates on deposits, while others expect no fluctuations in interest rates.
According to the prospective development program’s forecasts, aggregate income of the banks will grow by 35.1% and aggregate spending will grow 19.3%, compared with 2015.
ROA is projected at -0.7% to 2%, and ROE will stand between -4.3% and 9.7%.
As many as 20 commercial banks operate in Armenia now. –0—
